QBs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| Average | 17.0 | 25.0 | 324.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 25.0 | 324.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | ||
| High | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 | ||
| Low | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Patrick Mahomes should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Patrick Mahomes has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Patrick Mahomes's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Patrick Mahomes usually produces.
Projected is Patrick Mahomes's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 | IND | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| Mahomes avg | 23.5 | 37.0 | 283.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 25.3 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 17.0 | 25.0 | 324.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | |
| Difference | -6.5 | -12.0 | +41.0 | -1.5 | -0.5 | +2.5 | +20.0 | +0.5 | -0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mahomes averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scorePatrick Mahomes vs the Colts
Prediction for Patrick Mahomes
Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 23.1 points for Patrick Mahomes if playing as a QB1. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 21.7 over 1 game, and the Colts have given up 25.0 to QB1s (+43% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Patrick Mahomes scored: Wk 1 21.7. Average 21.7; weighted toward recent games it is 20.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Colts allowed 25.0 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +43%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 20.8 x 1.11 = 23.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Patrick Mahomes is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.9 points, leaning on Patrick Mahomes's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 324.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 40.0 rushing yards against the Colts across 1 game.
- The Colts allow 25.0 PPR points to QB1s, +43% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.