QBs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 13 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| Average | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | ||
| Median | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | ||
| High | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 | ||
| Low | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Patrick Mahomes should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Patrick Mahomes has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Patrick Mahomes's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Patrick Mahomes usually produces.
Projected is Patrick Mahomes's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 | IND | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| Mahomes avg | 23.5 | 37.0 | 283.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 25.3 | |
| Rams QB1 avg | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | -3.0 | -78.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +9.0 | -0.5 | -4.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 25.0 | 39.3 | 300.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 21.2 | 0.5 | 24.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mahomes averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Patrick MahomesLow confidence · 24.5 proj ptsStart
- Patrick Mahomes averages 25.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 25.7) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Rams have allowed 21.1 points to QB1s over 1 game (+25% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (20.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scorePatrick Mahomes vs the Rams
Prediction for Patrick Mahomes
Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 24.5 points for Patrick Mahomes if playing as a QB1. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 25.3 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 21.1 to QB1s (+25% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Patrick Mahomes scored: Wk 1 21.7, Wk 2 29.0. Average 25.3; weighted toward recent games it is 23.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 21.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 23.1 x 1.06 = 24.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Patrick Mahomes is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (24.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.7 points, leaning on Patrick Mahomes's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 25.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 205.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 29.0 rushing yards against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 21.1 PPR points to QB1s, +25% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.