QBs vs San Francisco 49ers
As of Week 14 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Matthew Stafford | 15 | 25 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 14 | 23 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Average | 14.5 | 24.0 | 176.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8.3 | ||
| Median | 14.5 | 24.0 | 176.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8.3 | ||
| High | 15 | 25 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12.5 | ||
| Low | 14 | 23 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Stafford vs the 49ers
Prediction for Matthew Stafford
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Stafford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 12.0 points for Matthew Stafford if playing as a QB1. Matthew Stafford has averaged 4.1 over 1 game, and the 49ers have given up 8.3 to QB1s (-51% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Stafford scored: Wk 1 4.1. Average 4.1; weighted toward recent games it is 15.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the 49ers allowed 8.3 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -51%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 15.1 x 0.80 = 12.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Stafford is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Matthew Stafford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 176.0 passing yards, 0.5 passing TDs and 2.5 rushing yards against the 49ers across 2 games.
- The 49ers allow 8.3 PPR points to QB1s, -51% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.1 to 12.5 (median 8.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Matthew StaffordMedium confidence · 12.0 proj ptsSit
- Matthew Stafford averages 4.1 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 4.1) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The 49ers have allowed 8.3 points to QB1s over 2 games (-51% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (20.6) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Matthew Stafford's stats vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Stafford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Stafford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Stafford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Stafford usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Stafford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 15 | 25 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4.1 |
| Stafford avg | 15.0 | 25.0 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
| 49ers QB1 avg | 14.5 | 24.0 | 176.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | -1.0 | +21.0 | +0.5 | -0.5 | +0.0 | +3.5 | +0.0 | +4.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 11.9 | 19.9 | 123.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 12.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Stafford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.