SportsProof

Bets (Beta) · Week 3

Why this is in beta: there are no official sportsbook odds connected yet, so any parlay prices and edges below are previews. The touchdown, catch, yardage and field goal lists further down are still real likelihoods: they are based on what has actually happened this season and how each defense has played, not on any odds.

The 15 most likely players for each stat this week, based on how they have played and how their opponent has defended that position. Tap a category for the full top 15.

Parlay maker

Our stats-only 3-leg pick · Week 3

Season averages only · not real odds
30%
all 3 hit

This has nothing to do with real sportsbook odds. It is built only from each player's season averages, how that defense has played against the position, the game setup and injuries. A parlay this likely to hit would usually pay very little, and could be a terrible bet.

  • Dalton Schultz over 8.5 receptions
    HOU @ IND · averages 8.0 · we project 10.1
    68%
    1/2 games over

    The pick

    • We project Dalton Schultz to go over 8.5 receptions. Season average: 8.0 per game in 2 games. Expected against IND: 10.1 (+27% vs their average).
    • Chance of going over 8.5: 68%. Over that line in 1 of 2 games this season.

    This season

    • Dalton Schultz has reached 9+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
    • Game by game: Wk 1 vs BUF 4, Wk 2 vs CIN 12.
    • Averages 8.00 receptions per game on 11.0 targets per game (16 total).

    Against the Colts

    • The Colts have allowed 7.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, more than the league average of 4.92 (+52%).
    • How TEs have played against them: Wk 1 BAL best was Andrews with 4; Wk 2 KC best was Kelce with 9.
    • 1 of 5 TEs with a role reached 9+ receptions against them (20%).

    Injuries and roles

    • Opposing starter Charvarius Ward (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
    • Heads up: 2 offensive linemen are out (Thomas, Ingram). Protection and run blocking may suffer.
    • Heads up: Teammate Nico Collins (a top target) is out, so Schultz may see more targets.
    • Opposing-defense injuries add x1.01 to this stat. Injuries on the player's own team are shown as flags and do not change the number.

    Game setup

    • Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for HOU (league avg 22.5)
    • Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late
    • Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking

    The math

    • receptions: starts from the season average of 8.00 per game. Matchup x1.21, game environment x1.03, defensive injuries x1.01 gives 10.15 expected.
    • Chance of 9+ receptions: 68% (count model). Fair price for that chance is -216.
    Open Dalton Schultz's page ›
  • Dalton Kincaid over 6.5 receptions
    BUF vs LAC · averages 6.0 · we project 7.9
    67%
    1/2 games over

    The pick

    • We project Dalton Kincaid to go over 6.5 receptions. Season average: 6.0 per game in 2 games. Expected against LAC: 7.9 (+31% vs their average).
    • Chance of going over 6.5: 67%. Over that line in 1 of 2 games this season.

    This season

    • Dalton Kincaid has reached 7+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
    • Game by game: Wk 1 vs HOU 5, Wk 2 vs DET 7.
    • Averages 6.00 receptions per game on 7.0 targets per game (12 total).

    Against the Chargers

    • The Chargers have allowed 6.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, more than the league average of 4.92 (+32%).
    • How TEs have played against them: Wk 1 ARI best was McBride with 9; Wk 2 LV best was Mayer with 3.
    • 1 of 3 TEs with a role reached 7+ receptions against them (33%).

    Injuries and roles

    • Opposing starter Dalvin Tomlinson (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
    • Opposing starter Derwin James Jr. (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
    • Opposing starter Elijah Molden (CB) is out, which helps the passing game.
    • Heads up: Teammate DJ Moore (a top target) is questionable.
    • Opposing-defense injuries add x1.05 to this stat. Injuries on the player's own team are shown as flags and do not change the number.

    Game setup

    • Vegas total 50.5, implied 28.8 points for BUF (league avg 22.5)
    • Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late
    • Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment

    The math

    • receptions: starts from the season average of 6.00 per game. Matchup x1.13, game environment x1.11, defensive injuries x1.05 gives 7.88 expected.
    • Chance of 7+ receptions: 67% (count model). Fair price for that chance is -205.
    Open Dalton Kincaid's page ›
  • CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions
    DAL vs BAL · averages 6.5 · we project 7.7
    65%
    1/2 games over

    The pick

    • We project CeeDee Lamb to go over 6.5 receptions. Season average: 6.5 per game in 2 games. Expected against BAL: 7.7 (+18% vs their average).
    • Chance of going over 6.5: 65%. Over that line in 1 of 2 games this season.

    This season

    • CeeDee Lamb has reached 7+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
    • Game by game: Wk 1 vs NYG 5, Wk 2 vs WAS 8.
    • Averages 6.50 receptions per game on 8.5 targets per game (13 total).

    Against the Ravens

    • The Ravens have allowed 13.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, more than the league average of 11.19 (+21%).
    • How WRs have played against them: Wk 1 IND best was Allen with 6; Wk 2 NO best was Olave with 8.
    • 1 of 9 WRs with a role reached 7+ receptions against them (11%).

    Game setup

    • Vegas total 52.5, implied 24.8 points for DAL (league avg 22.5)
    • Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing
    • Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking

    The math

    • receptions: starts from the season average of 6.50 per game. Matchup x1.08, game environment x1.09 gives 7.70 expected.
    • Chance of 7+ receptions: 65% (count model). Fair price for that chance is -184.
    Open CeeDee Lamb's page ›
How these three were found

We looked at 293 player and stat combinations across the league (receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards and passing yards) and kept the 79 where the projection beats the player's own average.

For each one the line is set at the season average (a 6.5 average becomes "over 6.5"). The projection starts from that average and is adjusted for how the defense has played against the position, the Vegas total and game script, weather, the quarterback, and injuries.

Injuries counted: starting cornerbacks, safeties, linebackers and defensive linemen who are out, the offensive line, and top targets or lead backs missing on the player's own team. Each effect is small and capped.

The three most likely to go over are chosen, at most one per game, and their chances are multiplied. Players with tiny averages are skipped, and so is anyone questionable or out. With only a few games played, treat these as informed leans, not sure things.

Top 3 parlays · Week 3

Tap one to open it. 4 legs at most, one leg per game.

Even money
Target -110 to +120
-108
52% to hit
Mid-shot
Target +300 to +400
+300
25% to hit
Long shot
Target +900 to +1100
+903
10% to hit
How these are picked

Every leg comes from the Bets lists (touchdowns and receptions when real prices are on), skipping injured players and anyone with fewer than two games of history. At most one leg per player and per game, so the legs are close to independent and the chances can be multiplied.

Without book prices, the preview picks the combination whose fair odds land in the range and whose weakest leg is strongest. Because the odds come from the same probabilities, there is no edge to find here.

The model has only a few weeks of data. Check the Accuracy page before trusting an edge.

For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Parlays lose most of the time. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Top 15 by stat

Anytime touchdown
1+ TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown75%
Rushing touchdown
1+ rushing TD
Derrick Henry69%
Receiving touchdown
1+ receiving TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown75%
Passing touchdowns
2+ passing TDs
Bryce Young76%
Receptions
5+ receptions
Dalton Schultz97%
Rushing yards
70+ rushing yds
Kenneth Walker III82%
Field goals
2+ field goals
Evan McPherson79%

Percentages come from a statistical model on this season's box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. Defenses are on the player pages: search any team's D/ST.