Crunching this week's bets
Running the numbers on every player, defense, line and forecast. This can take a few seconds.
For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Chances come from a statistical model built on this season's and last season's box scores; they are estimates, not locks. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vegas totals turned into each team's expected points, pace, weather, and the matchups most likely to pay off. Higher implied points means more touchdowns to go around.
CIN
WAS
DET
LV CIN
IND
DAL
KC LV
MIA
ATL
NYJFull defense-by-position tables are on Matchups.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 18% · fair +465
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Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 29% · fair +241
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 4 hit 28% · fair +256
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 3 hit 47% · fair +111
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Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 30% · fair +236
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 33% · fair +199
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 4 hit 17% · fair +499
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 31% · fair +221
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 3 hit 27% · fair +274
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 4 hit 16% · fair +509
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 23% · fair +337
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 3 hit 51% · fair -105
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 18% · fair +444
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 20% · fair +406
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Top SP players, each with their best bet.
Likeliest to score, any way.
Positions this matchup favors.
All 5 hit 17% · fair +474
Tap a player for their lines, game log and matchup.
Implied points split the Vegas total using the spread: a 48-point total with the home team favored by 4 gives the home team 26 and the visitors 22. It's the market's best guess at each team's score.
Pass / run chips are how the game setup (implied points, likely game script, weather, dome) nudges each team's passing and rushing in our projections.
Softest spots compare the yards each defense has allowed to a position (passing yards to QBs, rushing plus receiving yards to backs, receiving yards to receivers and tight ends) with what those same offenses usually gain there, so a defense isn't called soft just because it faced good teams. Small samples are pulled toward average and capped at ±40%, the same limits our bet projections use, then combined with the game setup.