Crunching this week's bets
Running the numbers on every player, defense, line and forecast. This can take a few seconds.
For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Chances come from a statistical model built on this season's and last season's box scores; they are estimates, not locks. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Green Bay PackersQ
NE| Per game | This yr | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 8.3 | 5.5 |
| Receptions | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Rec yards | 88.5 | 61.1 |
| Air yards | 110.3 | 97.7 |
| Total TDs | 0.8 | 0.6 |
How good a betting target Watson is this week, 0–100, from real stats. 50 is a typical WR.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
How often Watson has cleared each line, and our chance this week. Highlighted: the hardest line they reliably clear.
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 4/8 | 4/10 | 29% | 57% | -134 |
| 2+ | 2/8 |
Share of the offense each week. Role changes usually show up before yardage and catch totals do.
Receptions per game. Grey means fewer than 4 games on one side: noise, not signal.
This season. Volatility is for receptions.
Hit records count every game with a real role this season and last season (same position). “Reliably” is a cautious lower estimate that pools both seasons, with last season worth at most 8 games.
This week's chances come from the same model as the rest of the Bets pages: the player's rate per carry or target, blended with last season and a typical player at that workload, adjusted for the defense, the Vegas game setup, weather, the quarterback and injuries.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
Tap a bet type to see the stats behind each part. Parts are in standard deviations from a typical player at the position. A ranking, not a chance to hit or a price edge. How it works ›
| 2/10 |
| 11% |
| 21% |
| +377 |
| 3+ | 0/8 | 0/10 | <1% | 5% | +1719 |
|---|
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 4/8 | 4/10 | 28% | 57% | -134 |
| 2+ | 2/8 | 2/10 | 10% | 21% | +377 |
| 3+ | 0/8 | 0/10 | <1% | 5% | +1719 |
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ | 8/8 | 7/10 | 70% | 91% | ≤-1000 |
| 4+ | 6/8 | 6/10 | 49% | 80% | -399 |
| 5+ | 5/8 | 2/10 | 29% | 64% | -181 |
| 6+ | 4/8 | 0/10 | 17% | 47% | +111 |
| 7+ | 2/8 | 0/10 | 7% | 32% | +216 |
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40+ | 8/8 | 8/10 | 72% | 91% | -962 |
| 50+ | 6/8 | 5/10 | 45% | 83% | -476 |
| 60+ | 5/8 | 4/10 | 35% | 73% | -271 |
| 75+ | 4/8 | 4/10 | 28% | 58% | -135 |
| 100+ | 3/8 | 1/10 | 13% | 34% | +192 |
“Likely” is the middle 80% of outcomes our model expects this week. “Fair” shows a real sportsbook price when the odds feed has one, otherwise the price our chance is worth.
Bars: each game this season. Dotted line: this season's average. Dashed: 2025 average.