Receiving touchdown · Week 3

Each player's rate per game is blended with what a typical player at that workload produces, so one big game does not dominate early in the season.

That rate is then scaled by how the opponent has defended that position (per-game production allowed vs the league average), trusting small defensive samples less.

Finally it becomes a probability using a Poisson count model (good for rare events like touchdowns). Tap any player to see their exact inputs.