Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR San Francisco 49ers · Wk 3 vs ARI ARI

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

44%

Rank

#13

of 158

Why Samuel ranks #13

Deebo Samuel Sr. has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Samuel has 1 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 5.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.28 per game), giving 0.37 per game.
The Cardinals have allowed 2.00 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (+121%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.09): Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.0 points for SF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 8.5: leaning run-heavy late; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.58. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 44%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.58, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Cardinals faced in each game, not just one player.