Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

75%

Rank

of 158

Why Brown ranks #1

Amon-Ra St. Brown has reached 1+ receiving TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Brown has 4 receiving TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 13.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.69 per game), giving 1.22 per game.
The Jets have allowed 1.00 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (+11%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.04 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.11): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 1.40. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 75%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.40, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.