Christian Watson

WR Green Bay Packers · Wk 3 vs ATL ATL

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

48%

Rank

of 158

Why Watson ranks #8

Christian Watson has reached 1+ receiving TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Watson has 3 receiving TDs in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 9.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.49 per game), giving 0.89 per game.
The Falcons have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 25.3 points for GB (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.65. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 48%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.65, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Falcons faced in each game, not just one player.