RBs vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 8 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  CAR | Jonathon Brooks | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Average | 6.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.1 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.1 | ||
| High | 8 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
| Low | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Alvin Kamara should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Alvin Kamara has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Alvin Kamara will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Alvin Kamara's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Alvin Kamara usually produces.
Projected is Alvin Kamara's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BAL | 9 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Kamara avg | 9.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | |
| Falcons RB2 avg | 6.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | +0.5 | +0.0 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -6.5 | +0.0 | -4.1 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kamara averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Alvin KamaraMedium confidence · 7.8 proj ptsSit
Alvin Kamara usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Alvin Kamara averages 7.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 7.2) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Falcons have allowed 12.4 points to RB1s over 2 games (-21% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.2) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAlvin Kamara vs the Falcons
Prediction for Alvin Kamara
Nobody knows which slot Alvin Kamara will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 7.8 points for Alvin Kamara if playing as a RB1. Alvin Kamara has averaged 7.2 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 12.4 to RB1s (-21% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Alvin Kamara scored: Wk 2 7.2. Average 7.2; weighted toward recent games it is 8.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Falcons allowed 12.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 8.5 x 0.92 = 7.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Alvin Kamara is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.7 points, leaning on Alvin Kamara's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 6.5 carries, 15.5 rushing yards and 1.5 receptions against the Falcons across 2 games.
- The Falcons allow 3.1 PPR points to RB2s, -35% versus the league average of 4.8 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.1 to 4.1 (median 3.1).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.