RBs vs Baltimore Ravens
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Ravens in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 |  NO | Alvin Kamara | 9 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Average | 14.0 | 56.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| Median | 14.0 | 56.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 19 | 98 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 | ||
| Low | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonathon Brooks should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathon Brooks has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathon Brooks will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathon Brooks's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathon Brooks usually produces.
Projected is Jonathon Brooks's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 4 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 2 | ATL | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Brooks avg | 4.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 4.7 | |
| Ravens All avg | 7.4 | 28.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 8.1 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +13.0 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +1.2 | -14.3 | +0.0 | +3.5 | |
| Projected | 4.2 | 14.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brooks averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jonathon BrooksMedium confidence · 4.1 proj ptsSit
Jonathon Brooks usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jonathon Brooks averages 4.7 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 4.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Ravens have allowed 4.0 points to RB2s over 2 games (-15% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -6% adjustment.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 4.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonathon Brooks vs the Ravens
Prediction for Jonathon Brooks
Nobody knows which slot Jonathon Brooks will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 4.1 points for Jonathon Brooks if playing as a RB2. Jonathon Brooks has averaged 4.7 over 2 games, and the Ravens have given up 4.0 to RB2s (-15% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathon Brooks scored: Wk 1 7.2, Wk 2 2.1. Average 4.7; weighted toward recent games it is 4.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Ravens allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 4.4 x 0.94 = 4.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathon Brooks is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.5 points, leaning on Jonathon Brooks's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.0 carries, 56.5 rushing yards and 4.0 receptions against the Ravens across 2 games.
- The Ravens allow 16.2 PPR points to RB1s, +3% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.2 to 25.1 (median 16.2).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.