RBs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | RB1 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| Woody Marks | RB2 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| Sione Vaki | RB2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.0 | ||
| Average | 11.5 | 40.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 0.5 | 15.1 | |||
| Median | 12.5 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.5 | 14.2 | |||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | |||
| Low | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jordan Mason
Nobody knows which slot Jordan Mason will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 11.8 points for Jordan Mason if playing as a RB1. Jordan Mason has averaged 11.9 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 26.1 to RB1s (+67% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jordan Mason scored: Wk 1 11.9. Average 11.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 26.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +67%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +27% adjustment (x1.27).
4. Result. 9.3 x 1.27 = 11.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jordan Mason is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Jordan Mason's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 11.5 carries, 40.3 rushing yards and 2.8 receptions per player-game against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 30.1 PPR points to the position per game, +43% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Sione Vaki (3.0 pts, 1 car, 7 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.1 vs 19.1; car 11.5 vs 15.0; rush yds 40.3 vs 51.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, David Montgomery (28.9 pts, 20 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.1 vs 10.4; car 11.5 vs 8.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 28.9 (median 14.2).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Jordan Mason usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jordan Mason averages 11.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 11.9) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bills have allowed 26.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (+67% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +27% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 11.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jordan Mason's stats vs the Bills
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jordan Mason has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jordan Mason will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jordan Mason's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jordan Mason usually produces.
Projected is Jordan Mason's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 |
| Mason avg | 15.0 | 59.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | |
| Bills All avg | 11.5 | 40.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 0.5 | 15.1 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -18.8 | -0.5 | +3.3 | +2.8 | +22.8 | +0.5 | +3.2 | |
| Projected | 19.0 | 74.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mason averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.