RBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | RB1 | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB2 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
| 2 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | RB1 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 8.8 | 47.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 0.2 | 10.1 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |||
| High | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 34.1 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Christian McCaffrey
Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 26.3 points for Christian McCaffrey if playing as a RB1. Christian McCaffrey has averaged 18.2 over 2 games, and the Broncos have given up 24.1 to RB1s (+54% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian McCaffrey scored: Wk 1 13.8, Wk 2 22.6. Average 18.2; weighted toward recent games it is 21.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Broncos allowed 24.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +54%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +22% adjustment (x1.22).
4. Result. 21.6 x 1.22 = 26.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian McCaffrey is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (26.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.8 points, leaning on Christian McCaffrey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 26.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 8.8 carries, 47.7 rushing yards and 1.3 receptions per player-game against the Broncos across 2 games.
- The Broncos allow 30.4 PPR points to the position per game, +44% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kenneth Walker III (34.1 pts, 23 car, 173 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.1 vs 5.3; car 8.8 vs 6.0; rush yds 47.7 vs 22.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ameer Abdullah (2.3 pts, 3 car, 11 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.1 vs 11.7; car 8.8 vs 10.0; rush yds 47.7 vs 55.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 34.1 (median 5.6).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Christian McCaffrey usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Christian McCaffrey averages 18.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 18.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Broncos have allowed 24.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (+54% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +22% adjustment.
- Last season's average (24.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 26.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Christian McCaffrey's stats vs the Broncos
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian McCaffrey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian McCaffrey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian McCaffrey usually produces.
Projected is Christian McCaffrey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 | MIA | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 22.6 |
| McCaffrey avg | 10.0 | 45.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 18.2 | |
| Broncos All avg | 8.8 | 47.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 0.2 | 10.1 | |
| Difference | -1.2 | +2.2 | -0.7 | -4.0 | -3.2 | -21.3 | +0.2 | -8.1 | |
| Projected | 12.2 | 55.4 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 38.3 | 0.0 | 26.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McCaffrey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.