RBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | RB1 | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB2 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
| 2 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | RB1 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 3 |  LA | Kyren Williams | RB1 | 15 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 21.8 |
| Blake Corum | RB2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
| 4 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | RB1 | 15 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 16.0 |
| Kaelon Black | RB2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
| 5 |  LAC | Kimani Vidal | RB1 | 8 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 5.9 | ||
| Omarion Hampton | RB3 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4.9 | ||
| 6 |  SEA | George Holani | RB1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB2 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | ||
| Velus Jones Jr. | RB3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
| 7 |  ARI | Bam Knight | RB1 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB2 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
| 8 | KC | Emmett Johnson | RB1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 128 | 1 | 25.3 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB2 | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
| Average | 9.2 | 39.9 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 9.9 | |||
| Median | 7.5 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | |||
| High | 23 | 173 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 128 | 1 | 34.1 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chuba Hubbard should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chuba Hubbard has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chuba Hubbard will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chuba Hubbard's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chuba Hubbard usually produces.
Projected is Chuba Hubbard's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2 | ATL | 12 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 | CLE | 19 | 82 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15.0 |
| 4 | DET | 20 | 122 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 25.9 |
| 6 | PHI | 28 | 120 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19.1 |
| 7 | TB | 7 | 33 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 8 | GB | 22 | 81 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 24.9 |
| Hubbard avg | 16.9 | 77.1 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 0.3 | 19.0 | |
| Broncos All avg | 9.2 | 39.9 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 9.9 | |
| Difference | -7.7 | -37.2 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -0.2 | -9.1 | |
| Projected | 18.0 | 82.6 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 22.9 | 0.3 | 17.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hubbard averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chuba HubbardGood confidence · 17.6 proj pts7/10 start
Chuba Hubbard usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Chuba Hubbard averages 19.0 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 19.1) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Broncos have allowed 17.7 points to RB1s over 8 games (+10% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.4) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 21.0 points for CAR (league avg 22.6); Mild weather (64F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Talanoa Hufanga (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Eyioma Uwazurike (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 17.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChuba Hubbard vs the Broncos
Prediction for Chuba Hubbard
Nobody knows which slot Chuba Hubbard will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 17.9 points for Chuba Hubbard if playing as a RB1. Chuba Hubbard has averaged 19.0 over 7 games, and the Broncos have given up 17.7 to RB1s (+10% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chuba Hubbard scored: Wk 1 23.7, Wk 2 14.4, Wk 3 15.0, Wk 4 25.9, Wk 6 19.1, Wk 7 10.0, Wk 8 24.9. Average 19.0; weighted toward recent games it is 16.7.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 17.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +10%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 16.7 x 1.07 = 17.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chuba Hubbard is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Chuba Hubbard's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 9.2 carries, 39.9 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions per player-game against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 24.7 PPR points to the position per game, +12% versus the league average of 22.0 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kenneth Walker III (34.1 pts, 23 car, 173 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.9 vs 8.6; car 9.2 vs 8.4; rush yds 39.9 vs 32.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, LeQuint Allen Jr. (0.0 pts, 0 car, 0 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.9 vs 10.4; car 9.2 vs 9.6; rush yds 39.9 vs 42.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 20 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 34.1 (median 8.0).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 6 of 20 player-games (30%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.