RBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 7 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Average | 18.0 | 119.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 24.1 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 119.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 24.1 | ||
| High | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 | ||
| Low | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Bam Knight
Nobody knows which slot Bam Knight will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 7.5 points for Bam Knight if playing as a RB2. Bam Knight has averaged 2.4 over 1 game, and the Broncos have given up 5.6 to RB2s (+17% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bam Knight scored: Wk 2 2.4. Average 2.4; weighted toward recent games it is 7.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Broncos allowed 5.6 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 7.0 x 1.07 = 7.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bam Knight is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Bam Knight's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- RB1s have averaged 18.0 carries, 119.0 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Broncos across 2 games.
- The Broncos allow 24.1 PPR points to RB1s, +54% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.2 to 34.1 (median 24.1).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 60 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Bam Knight usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Bam Knight averages 2.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 2.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Broncos have allowed 5.6 points to RB2s over 2 games (+17% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Bam Knight's stats vs the Broncos
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bam Knight has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bam Knight will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bam Knight's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bam Knight usually produces.
Projected is Bam Knight's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SEA | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Knight avg | 2.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | |
| Broncos RB1 avg | 18.0 | 119.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 24.1 | |
| Difference | +16.0 | +95.0 | +1.0 | +4.0 | +2.5 | +7.5 | +0.5 | +21.8 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 2.4 | 29.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Knight averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.