RBs vs Detroit Lions
As of Week 10 · through 2 games · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Kendre Miller | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Average | 9.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | ||
| Median | 9.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Reggie Gilliam
Nobody knows which slot Reggie Gilliam will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 1.7 points for Reggie Gilliam if playing as a RB2. Reggie Gilliam has averaged 1.4 over 1 game, and the Lions have given up 9.0 to RB2s (+89% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Reggie Gilliam scored: Wk 2 1.4. Average 1.4; weighted toward recent games it is 1.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Lions allowed 9.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +89%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +22% adjustment (x1.22).
4. Result. 1.4 x 1.22 = 1.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Reggie Gilliam is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.0 points, leaning on Reggie Gilliam's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- RB2s have averaged 9.0 carries, 30.0 rushing yards and 0.0 receptions against the Lions across 2 games.
- The Lions allow 9.0 PPR points to RB2s, +89% versus the league average of 4.8 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Reggie Gilliam averages 1.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Lions have allowed 9.0 points to RB2s over 1 game (+89% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +22% adjustment.
- Projection: 1.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Reggie Gilliam's stats vs the Lions
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Reggie Gilliam has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Reggie Gilliam will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Reggie Gilliam's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Reggie Gilliam usually produces.
Projected is Reggie Gilliam's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Gilliam avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | |
| Lions RB2 avg | 9.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Difference | +9.0 | +30.0 | +1.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | +0.0 | +7.6 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gilliam averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.