RBs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| Average | 13.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | ||
| High | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 | ||
| Low | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chase Brown should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chase Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chase Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chase Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chase Brown usually produces.
Projected is Chase Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 16 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 18.8 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Brown avg | 18.0 | 68.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | |
| Texans RB1 avg | 13.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -11.0 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -5.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 16.0 | 60.6 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 15.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chase BrownMedium confidence · 13.6 proj ptsStart
- Chase Brown averages 15.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 14.6) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Texans have allowed 10.6 points to RB1s over 2 games (-33% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 13.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChase Brown vs the Texans
Prediction for Chase Brown
Nobody knows which slot Chase Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 15.5 points for Chase Brown if playing as a RB1. Chase Brown has averaged 18.8 over 1 game, and the Texans have given up 9.9 to RB1s (-43% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chase Brown scored: Wk 1 18.8. Average 18.8; weighted toward recent games it is 17.3.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Texans allowed 9.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -43%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 17.3 x 0.89 = 15.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chase Brown is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Chase Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.0 carries, 57.0 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Texans across 1 game.
- The Texans allow 9.9 PPR points to RB1s, -43% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.