RBs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| Average | 24.0 | 144.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 35.3 | ||
| Median | 24.0 | 144.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 35.3 | ||
| High | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreKenneth Walker III vs the Colts
Prediction for Kenneth Walker III
Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 23.7 points for Kenneth Walker III if playing as a RB1. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 34.1 over 1 game, and the Colts have given up 35.3 to RB1s (+102% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kenneth Walker III scored: Wk 1 34.1. Average 34.1; weighted toward recent games it is 18.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Colts allowed 35.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +102%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +25% adjustment (x1.25).
4. Result. 18.9 x 1.25 = 23.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kenneth Walker III is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.2 points, leaning on Kenneth Walker III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 24.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 24.0 carries, 144.0 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Colts across 1 game.
- The Colts allow 35.3 PPR points to RB1s, +102% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Kenneth Walker IIIMedium confidence · 25.8 proj ptsMust Start
- Kenneth Walker III averages 29.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 28.4) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Colts have allowed 29.5 points to RB1s over 2 games (+89% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 25.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Kenneth Walker III's stats vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kenneth Walker III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kenneth Walker III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kenneth Walker III usually produces.
Projected is Kenneth Walker III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 | IND | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| III avg | 23.5 | 145.0 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 29.0 | |
| Colts All avg | 15.0 | 81.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 19.5 | |
| Difference | -8.5 | -64.0 | +1.0 | -7.0 | -3.5 | -25.0 | -0.5 | -9.4 | |
| Projected | 30.6 | 188.5 | 0.7 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 51.4 | 0.7 | 25.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.