RBs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Quinshon Judkins | RB1 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Raheim Sanders | RB2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
| 2 |  DEN | Jonah Coleman | RB1 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Tyler Badie | RB2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 4.9 | ||
| J.K. Dobbins | RB3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
| Average | 6.8 | 22.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 7.2 | |||
| Median | 10.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |||
| High | 12 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 14.8 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 8.9 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.2 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 5.3 to RB2s (+10% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8. Average 9.2; weighted toward recent games it is 8.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +10%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 8.5 x 1.04 = 8.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.3 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 6.8 carries, 22.0 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions per player-game against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 18.0 PPR points to the position per game, -15% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jonah Coleman (14.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.2 vs 5.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Raheim Sanders (1 car) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 6.8 vs 8.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 5 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.6 to 14.8 (median 5.6).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 player-games (20%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.8) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Jaguars have allowed 5.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (+10% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 8.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's stats vs the Jaguars
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 14.0 | 53.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
| Jaguars All avg | 6.8 | 22.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 7.2 | |
| Difference | -7.2 | -31.0 | -0.3 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +18.8 | +0.0 | -2.0 | |
| Projected | 14.6 | 55.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 8.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.