RBs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 10.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Low | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Warren vs the Patriots
Prediction for Jaylen Warren
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 10.8 points for Jaylen Warren if playing as a RB1. Jaylen Warren has averaged 10.3 over 1 game, and the Patriots have given up 7.8 to RB1s (-55% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Warren scored: Wk 1 10.3. Average 10.3; weighted toward recent games it is 12.5.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Patriots allowed 7.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -55%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 12.5 x 0.86 = 10.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Warren is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Jaylen Warren's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 10.0 carries, 52.0 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions against the Patriots across 1 game.
- The Patriots allow 7.8 PPR points to RB1s, -55% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Jaylen WarrenMedium confidence · 9.7 proj ptsFlex
- Jaylen Warren averages 10.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.0) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Patriots have allowed 8.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (-44% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -18% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jaylen Warren's stats vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Warren has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Warren's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Warren usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Warren's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 | NE | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Warren avg | 10.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 10.0 | |
| Patriots RB1 avg | 10.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | +7.5 | +0.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 | -24.5 | +0.0 | -2.2 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 9.0 | 38.3 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 26.3 | 0.0 | 10.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Warren averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.