RBs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 14 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | RB1 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Brady Russell | RB2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
| George Holani | RB3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
| Emanuel Wilson | RB4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | ||
| 2 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | RB1 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB2 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.4 | ||
| Travis Homer | RB3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | ||
| Average | 5.7 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |||
| High | 11 | 52 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Aaron Jones
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 10.5 points for Aaron Jones if playing as a RB2. Aaron Jones has averaged 10.3 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 5.2 to RB2s (+9% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Jones scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 10.5. Average 10.3; weighted toward recent games it is 10.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 5.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 10.1 x 1.04 = 10.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Jones is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.3 points, leaning on Aaron Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 5.7 carries, 23.6 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions per player-game against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 16.4 PPR points to the position per game, -22% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 7 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.3 to 9.7 (median 4.0).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Aaron Jones usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Aaron Jones averages 10.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.3) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Patriots have allowed 5.2 points to RB2s over 2 games (+9% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 10.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Aaron Jones's stats vs the Patriots
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Jones usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| Jones avg | 17.5 | 72.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.3 | |
| Patriots All avg | 5.7 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | |
| Difference | -11.8 | -48.9 | -0.5 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +11.7 | +0.0 | -5.6 | |
| Projected | 18.2 | 75.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.