RBs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Brady Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Average | 3.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | ||
| High | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.4 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for MarShawn Lloyd
Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 5.3 points for MarShawn Lloyd if playing as a RB1. MarShawn Lloyd has averaged 6.2 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 8.8 to RB1s (-44% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. MarShawn Lloyd scored: Wk 1 3.7, Wk 2 8.6. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 6.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -44%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -18% adjustment (x0.82).
4. Result. 6.4 x 0.82 = 5.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely MarShawn Lloyd is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.2 points, leaning on MarShawn Lloyd's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- RB2s have averaged 3.5 carries, 11.0 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 5.2 PPR points to RB2s, +9% versus the league average of 4.8 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 6.4 (median 5.2).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
MarShawn Lloyd usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- MarShawn Lloyd averages 6.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 6.4) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Patriots have allowed 8.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (-44% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -18% adjustment.
- Projection: 5.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
MarShawn Lloyd's stats vs the Patriots
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game MarShawn Lloyd has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus MarShawn Lloyd's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than MarShawn Lloyd usually produces.
Projected is MarShawn Lloyd's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.6 |
| Lloyd avg | 9.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 6.2 | |
| Patriots RB2 avg | 3.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | |
| Difference | -6.0 | -17.5 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +18.0 | -0.5 | -1.0 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 9.9 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 6.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lloyd averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.