RBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 5 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Average | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | ||
| Median | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | ||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
| Low | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreJordan Mason vs the Saints
Prediction for Jordan Mason
Nobody knows which slot Jordan Mason will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 11.7 points for Jordan Mason if playing as a RB1. Jordan Mason has averaged 11.9 over 1 game, and the Saints have given up 25.6 to RB1s (+64% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jordan Mason scored: Wk 1 11.9. Average 11.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 25.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +64%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 9.3 x 1.26 = 11.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jordan Mason is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.0 points, leaning on Jordan Mason's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 22.5 carries, 112.0 rushing yards and 4.0 receptions against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 25.6 PPR points to RB1s, +64% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 17.7 to 33.6 (median 25.6).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 60 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Jordan MasonMedium confidence · 11.7 proj ptsOut
- Jordan Mason averages 11.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 11.9) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Saints have allowed 25.6 points to RB1s over 2 games (+64% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 11.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jordan Mason's stats vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jordan Mason has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jordan Mason will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jordan Mason's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jordan Mason usually produces.
Projected is Jordan Mason's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 |
| Mason avg | 15.0 | 59.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | |
| Saints RB1 avg | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | |
| Difference | +7.5 | +53.0 | +0.5 | +4.0 | +4.0 | +24.5 | +0.0 | +13.7 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 18.8 | 74.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mason averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.