RBs vs New York Giants
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 |
| Emari Demercado | RB2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | ||
| Hunter Luepke | RB3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | ||
| Average | 5.0 | 18.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 8.5 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | |||
| High | 12 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 | |||
| Low | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Kyren Williams
Nobody knows which slot Kyren Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 17.0 points for Kyren Williams if playing as a RB1. Kyren Williams has averaged 15.5 over 1 game, and the Giants have given up 24.2 to RB1s (+38% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kyren Williams scored: Wk 1 15.5. Average 15.5; weighted toward recent games it is 15.5.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Giants allowed 24.2 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +38%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 15.5 x 1.10 = 17.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kyren Williams is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.2 points, leaning on Kyren Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 5.0 carries, 18.3 rushing yards and 1.7 receptions per player-game against the Giants across 1 game.
- The Giants allow 25.6 PPR points to the position per game, +10% versus the league average of 23.2 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Javonte Williams (24.2 pts, 12 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.5 vs 0.7; car 5.0 vs 1.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Emari Demercado (0.7 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.5 vs 12.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.7 to 24.2 (median 0.7).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Kyren Williams usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Kyren Williams averages 15.5 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 15.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Giants have allowed 24.2 points to RB1s over 1 game (+55% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (15.5) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +11%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 27.0 points for LA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Paulson Adebo (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 20.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Kyren Williams's stats vs the Giants
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kyren Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kyren Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kyren Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kyren Williams usually produces.
Projected is Kyren Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.5 |
| Williams avg | 11.0 | 41.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 15.5 | |
| Giants All avg | 5.0 | 18.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 8.5 | |
| Difference | -6.0 | -22.7 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -13.7 | +0.3 | -7.0 | |
| Projected | 12.5 | 46.6 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 20.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.