RBs vs San Francisco 49ers
As of Week 6 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Kyren Williams | RB1 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.5 |
| Blake Corum | RB2 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 | ||
| Ronnie Rivers | RB3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.4 | ||
| 2 |  MIA | De'Von Achane | RB1 | 20 | 74 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.3 |
| DJ Herman | RB2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
| Jaylen Wright | RB3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | ||
| Ollie Gordon II | RB4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | ||
| Average | 7.3 | 29.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |||
| Median | 5.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |||
| High | 20 | 74 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.5 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 8.1 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.2 over 2 games, and the 49ers have given up 4.1 to RB2s (-14% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8. Average 9.2; weighted toward recent games it is 8.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the 49ers allowed 4.1 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 8.5 x 0.95 = 8.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.8 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 7.3 carries, 29.4 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions per player-game against the 49ers across 2 games.
- The 49ers allow 20.6 PPR points to the position per game, -2% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, De'Von Achane (12.3 pts, 20 car, 74 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.9 vs 4.8; car 7.3 vs 5.2; rush yds 29.4 vs 22.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kyren Williams (15.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.9 vs 4.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 7 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.7 to 15.5 (median 3.4).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 player-games (14%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.8) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The 49ers have allowed 4.1 points to RB2s over 2 games (-14% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 8.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's stats vs the 49ers
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 14.0 | 53.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
| 49ers All avg | 7.3 | 29.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
| Difference | -6.7 | -23.6 | -0.4 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +10.4 | +0.0 | -3.3 | |
| Projected | 13.2 | 50.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 8.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.