TEs vs Dallas Cowboys
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 |
| 2 |  WAS | Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Average | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46.0 | 1.0 | 15.1 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46.0 | 1.0 | 15.1 | ||
| High | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Matthew Hibner should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Hibner has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Hibner's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Hibner usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Hibner's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Hibner avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | |
| Cowboys All avg | 2.8 | 2.8 | 26.8 | 0.5 | 8.4 | |
| Difference | +1.8 | +1.8 | +13.8 | +0.5 | +6.1 | |
| Projected | 1.2 | 1.2 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hibner averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Matthew HibnerLow confidence · 3.1 proj ptsSit
- Matthew Hibner averages 2.3 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 2.3) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Cowboys have allowed 15.1 points to TE1s over 2 games (+47% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +19% adjustment.
- Game environment +13%: Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 3.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Hibner vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Matthew Hibner
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 2.7 points for Matthew Hibner if playing as a TE1. Matthew Hibner has averaged 2.3 over 1 game, and the Cowboys have given up 15.1 to TE1s (+47% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Hibner scored: Wk 1 2.3. Average 2.3; weighted toward recent games it is 2.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cowboys allowed 15.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +47%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +19% adjustment (x1.19).
4. Result. 2.3 x 1.19 = 2.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Hibner is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.6 points, leaning on Matthew Hibner's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.5 receptions, 46.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 2 games.
- The Cowboys allow 15.1 PPR points to TE1s, +47% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.4 to 27.8 (median 15.1).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.