TEs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | TE1 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| Matthew Hibner | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
| Durham Smythe | TE3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| 2 |  KC | Travis Kelce | TE1 | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| Noah Gray | TE2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 7.5 | |||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | |||
| High | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Daniel Bellinger should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Daniel Bellinger has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Daniel Bellinger will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Daniel Bellinger's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Daniel Bellinger usually produces.
Projected is Daniel Bellinger's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bellinger avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | |
| Colts All avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 7.5 | |
| Difference | +3.0 | +2.5 | +29.9 | +0.2 | +6.7 | |
| Projected | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Bellinger averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Daniel BellingerMedium confidence · 3.6 proj ptsSit
Daniel Bellinger usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Daniel Bellinger averages 0.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.8) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Colts have allowed 17.0 points to TE1s over 2 games (+65% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDaniel Bellinger vs the Colts
Prediction for Daniel Bellinger
Nobody knows which slot Daniel Bellinger will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 3.6 points for Daniel Bellinger if playing as a TE1. Daniel Bellinger has averaged 0.8 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 17.0 to TE1s (+65% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Daniel Bellinger scored: Wk 1 1.7, Wk 2 0.0. Average 0.8; weighted toward recent games it is 2.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 2.9 x 1.26 = 3.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Daniel Bellinger is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.2 points, leaning on Daniel Bellinger's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 33.4 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 18.9 PPR points to the position per game, +46% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Travis Kelce (25.1 pts, 9 rec, 101 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.5 vs 3.1; rec 3.0 vs 1.5; yds 33.4 vs 16.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Noah Gray (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.5 vs 9.4; rec 3.0 vs 3.8; yds 33.4 vs 41.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 25.1 (median 2.3).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 player-games (20%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.