TEs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | TE1 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| Matthew Hibner | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
| Durham Smythe | TE3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| 2 |  KC | Travis Kelce | TE1 | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| Noah Gray | TE2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 7.5 | |||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | |||
| High | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Colts All avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 7.5 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +1.0 | +19.4 | +0.2 | +4.1 | |
| Projected | 2.5 | 2.5 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brevyn Spann-FordMedium confidence · 3.4 proj ptsSit
Brevyn Spann-Ford usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Brevyn Spann-Ford averages 3.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Colts have allowed 17.0 points to TE1s over 2 games (+65% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.4) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Colts
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 3.4 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.4 over 1 game, and the Colts have given up 17.0 to TE1s (+65% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4. Average 3.4; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 2.7 x 1.26 = 3.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 33.4 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 18.9 PPR points to the position per game, +46% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Travis Kelce (25.1 pts, 9 rec, 101 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.5 vs 3.1; rec 3.0 vs 1.5; yds 33.4 vs 16.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Noah Gray (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.5 vs 9.4; rec 3.0 vs 3.8; yds 33.4 vs 41.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 25.1 (median 2.3).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 player-games (20%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.