TEs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 15 · through 1 game · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | ||
| High | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jake Ferguson should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jake Ferguson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jake Ferguson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jake Ferguson usually produces.
Projected is Jake Ferguson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | WAS | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| Ferguson avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 1.0 | 11.5 | |
| Rams TE1 avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -1.0 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -7.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 9.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ferguson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jake FergusonLow confidence · 9.9 proj ptsSit
- Jake Ferguson averages 11.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Rams have allowed 3.9 points to TE1s over 1 game (-62% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJake Ferguson vs the Rams
Prediction for Jake Ferguson
Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 9.9 points for Jake Ferguson if playing as a TE1. Jake Ferguson has averaged 11.5 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 3.9 to TE1s (-62% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jake Ferguson scored: Wk 1 2.6, Wk 2 20.3. Average 11.5; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 3.9 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -62%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.84 = 9.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jake Ferguson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.0 points, leaning on Jake Ferguson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 19.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 3.9 PPR points to TE1s, -62% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.