TEs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Michael Mayer | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 |  SF | George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 |
| Average | 5.5 | 5.0 | 56.0 | 0.5 | 13.6 | ||
| Median | 5.5 | 5.0 | 56.0 | 0.5 | 13.6 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Travis Kelce
Nobody knows which slot Travis Kelce will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 16.8 points for Travis Kelce if playing as a TE1. Travis Kelce has averaged 17.6 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 13.6 to TE1s (+32% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Travis Kelce scored: Wk 1 10.1, Wk 2 25.1. Average 17.6; weighted toward recent games it is 14.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 13.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +32%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 14.9 x 1.13 = 16.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Travis Kelce is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.1 points, leaning on Travis Kelce's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- TE1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 56.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 13.6 PPR points to TE1s, +32% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 18.0 (median 13.6).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Travis Kelce averages 17.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 18.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 13.6 points to TE1s over 2 games (+32% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 46% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
- Projection: 18.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Travis Kelce's stats vs the Dolphins
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Travis Kelce has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Travis Kelce will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Travis Kelce's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Travis Kelce usually produces.
Projected is Travis Kelce's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 5 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2 | IND | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| Kelce avg | 8.0 | 6.0 | 86.0 | 0.5 | 17.6 | |
| Dolphins TE1 avg | 5.5 | 5.0 | 56.0 | 0.5 | 13.6 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -1.0 | -30.0 | +0.0 | -4.0 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 97.1 | 0.6 | 16.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kelce averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.