TEs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Michael Mayer | TE1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| Average | 7.0 | 6.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |||
| High | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 | |||
| Low | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Luke Farrell should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Luke Farrell has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Luke Farrell will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Luke Farrell's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Luke Farrell usually produces.
Projected is Luke Farrell's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Farrell avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| Dolphins All avg | 7.0 | 6.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
| Difference | +5.0 | +4.0 | +13.0 | +0.0 | +5.3 | |
| Projected | 2.3 | 2.3 | 21.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Farrell averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Luke FarrellMedium confidence · 3.9 proj ptsSit
Luke Farrell usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Luke Farrell averages 3.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 13.6 points to TE1s over 2 games (+32% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreLuke Farrell vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Luke Farrell
Nobody knows which slot Luke Farrell will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 3.4 points for Luke Farrell if playing as a TE1. Luke Farrell has averaged 3.9 over 1 game, and the Dolphins have given up 9.2 to TE1s (-11% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Luke Farrell scored: Wk 1 3.9. Average 3.9; weighted toward recent games it is 3.5.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Dolphins allowed 9.2 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 3.5 x 0.97 = 3.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Luke Farrell is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.0 points, leaning on Luke Farrell's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 6.0 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Dolphins across 1 game.
- The Dolphins allow 9.2 PPR points to the position per game, -31% versus the league average of 13.3 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.