TEs vs San Francisco 49ers
As of Week 9 · through 7 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2 |  MIA | Greg Dulcich | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 11 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 4 |  DEN | Evan Engram | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 5 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 |  WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 7 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 5 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 13.2 |
| Average | 5.3 | 4.0 | 31.7 | 0.1 | 8.0 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | ||
| High | 11 | 9 | 75 | 1 | 16.5 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brock Bowers should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brock Bowers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brock Bowers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brock Bowers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brock Bowers usually produces.
Projected is Brock Bowers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NO | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 27.6 |
| 4 | KC | 11 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 20.6 |
| 5 | NE | 10 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 23.0 |
| 6 | BUF | 9 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 7 | LA | 8 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 8 | NYJ | 10 | 7 | 92 | 2 | 28.2 |
| Bowers avg | 10.2 | 6.8 | 91.2 | 0.8 | 20.6 | |
| 49ers TE1 avg | 5.3 | 4.0 | 31.7 | 0.1 | 8.0 | |
| Difference | -4.9 | -2.8 | -59.5 | -0.7 | -12.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 76.0 | 0.7 | 15.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Bowers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brock BowersGood confidence · 16.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Brock Bowers averages 20.6 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 20.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The 49ers have allowed 8.0 points to TE1s over 7 games (-24% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.7) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +1%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 20.8 points for LV (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (71F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Upton Stout (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 16.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrock Bowers vs the 49ers
Prediction for Brock Bowers
Nobody knows which slot Brock Bowers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 15.8 points for Brock Bowers if playing as a TE1. Brock Bowers has averaged 20.6 over 6 games, and the 49ers have given up 8.0 to TE1s (-24% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brock Bowers scored: Wk 3 27.6, Wk 4 20.6, Wk 5 23.0, Wk 6 11.0, Wk 7 13.3, Wk 8 28.2. Average 20.6; weighted toward recent games it is 18.9.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the 49ers allowed 8.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 18.9 x 0.83 = 15.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brock Bowers is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Brock Bowers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 31.7 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the 49ers across 7 games.
- The 49ers allow 8.0 PPR points to TE1s, -24% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Trey McBride (16.5 pts, 9 rec, 75 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.0 vs 6.6; rec 4.0 vs 3.2; yds 31.7 vs 24.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Chig Okonkwo (13.9 pts, 7 rec, 69 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.0 vs 7.0; rec 4.0 vs 3.5; yds 31.7 vs 25.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.6 to 16.5 (median 5.0).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.