TEs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| Average | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Drew Sample
Nobody knows which slot Drew Sample will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 4.6 points for Drew Sample if playing as a TE1. Drew Sample has averaged 4.9 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 22.0 to TE1s (+114% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drew Sample scored: Wk 1 4.9. Average 4.9; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 22.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +114%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 3.6 x 1.30 = 4.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drew Sample is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.8 points, leaning on Drew Sample's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 60.0 receiving yards and 2.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 22.0 PPR points to TE1s, +114% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 20.3 to 23.7 (median 22.0).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Drew Sample averages 4.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 4.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Commanders have allowed 22.0 points to TE1s over 2 games (+114% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.9) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 4.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Drew Sample's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drew Sample has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drew Sample will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drew Sample's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drew Sample usually produces.
Projected is Drew Sample's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Sample avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | +1.0 | +41.0 | +2.0 | +17.1 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 24.7 | 0.0 | 4.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sample averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.