WRs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | DJ Moore | 8 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 2 |  CIN | Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 26.5 |
| Average | 8.5 | 6.0 | 87.5 | 1.5 | 23.8 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.0 | 87.5 | 1.5 | 23.8 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 100 | 2 | 26.5 | ||
| Low | 8 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 21.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrian Thomas Jr. vs the Texans
Prediction for Brian Thomas Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Brian Thomas Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 9.0 points for Brian Thomas Jr. if playing as a WR3. Brian Thomas Jr. has averaged 7.0 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 5.3 to WR3s (+17% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brian Thomas Jr. scored: Wk 1 7.0, Wk 2 7.0. Average 7.0; weighted toward recent games it is 8.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 8.5 x 1.07 = 9.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brian Thomas Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.4 points, leaning on Brian Thomas Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.0 receptions, 87.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 23.8 PPR points to WR1s, +40% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 21.0 to 26.5 (median 23.8).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 70 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Brian Thomas Jr.Medium confidence · 9.0 proj ptsFlex
Brian Thomas Jr. usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Brian Thomas Jr. averages 7.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 7.0) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Texans have allowed 5.3 points to WR3s over 2 games (+17% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Brian Thomas Jr.'s stats vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brian Thomas Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brian Thomas Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brian Thomas Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brian Thomas Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Brian Thomas Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 2 | DEN | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Jr. avg | 5.5 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | |
| Texans WR1 avg | 8.5 | 6.0 | 87.5 | 1.5 | 23.8 | |
| Difference | +3.0 | +3.0 | +47.5 | +1.5 | +16.8 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 46.4 | 0.0 | 9.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.