WRs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Khalil Shakir | 6 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  CIN | Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Average | 3.5 | 2.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 2.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Downs should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Downs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Downs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Downs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Downs usually produces.
Projected is Josh Downs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 | KC | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Downs avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 | 9.9 | |
| Texans WR3 avg | 3.5 | 2.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
| Difference | -3.0 | -2.0 | -26.0 | +0.0 | -4.6 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 58.2 | 0.0 | 10.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Downs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Josh DownsMedium confidence · 11.4 proj ptsFlex
Josh Downs usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Josh Downs averages 9.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.4) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Texans have allowed 12.4 points to WR2s over 2 games (+50% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.7) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 11.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Downs vs the Texans
Prediction for Josh Downs
Nobody knows which slot Josh Downs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 11.5 points for Josh Downs if playing as a WR2. Josh Downs has averaged 9.9 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 12.4 to WR2s (+50% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Downs scored: Wk 1 5.7, Wk 2 14.2. Average 9.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 12.4 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is +50%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 9.5 x 1.20 = 11.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Downs is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.9 points, leaning on Josh Downs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 28.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 5.3 PPR points to WR3s, +17% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 9.0 (median 5.3).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.