WRs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 10 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | DJ Moore | WR1 | 8 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| Josh Palmer | WR2 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 10.4 | ||
| Khalil Shakir | WR3 | 6 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| 2 |  CIN | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 9 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 26.5 |
| Tee Higgins | WR2 | 10 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 14.5 | ||
| Andrei Iosivas | WR3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
| Average | 6.0 | 3.8 | 60.2 | 0.7 | 13.9 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.5 | 62.5 | 0.5 | 12.4 | |||
| High | 10 | 7 | 100 | 2 | 26.5 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Isaiah Bond should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Isaiah Bond has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Isaiah Bond will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Isaiah Bond's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Isaiah Bond usually produces.
Projected is Isaiah Bond's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TB | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Bond avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | |
| Texans Top 3 avg | 6.0 | 3.8 | 60.2 | 0.7 | 13.9 | |
| Difference | +5.0 | +2.8 | +50.2 | +0.7 | +11.9 | |
| Projected | 1.1 | 1.1 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Bond averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Isaiah BondMedium confidence · 3.4 proj ptsSit
Isaiah Bond usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Isaiah Bond averages 2.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 2.0) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Texans have allowed 5.3 points to WR3s over 2 games (+17% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.8) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreIsaiah Bond vs the Texans
Prediction for Isaiah Bond
Nobody knows which slot Isaiah Bond will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 3.4 points for Isaiah Bond if playing as a WR3. Isaiah Bond has averaged 2.0 over 1 game, and the Texans have given up 5.3 to WR3s (+17% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Isaiah Bond scored: Wk 2 2.0. Average 2.0; weighted toward recent games it is 3.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 3.2 x 1.07 = 3.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Isaiah Bond is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.0 points, leaning on Isaiah Bond's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.8 receptions, 60.2 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs per player-game against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 41.5 PPR points to the position per game, +39% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Andrei Iosivas (1.7 pts, 1 rec, 7 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.9 vs 16.3; rec 3.8 vs 4.4; yds 60.2 vs 70.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ja'Marr Chase (26.5 pts, 7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.9 vs 11.3; rec 3.8 vs 3.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 26.5 (median 12.4).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.