WRs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | LaJohntay Wester | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2 |  KC | Rashee Rice | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ja'Marr Chase should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ja'Marr Chase has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ja'Marr Chase's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ja'Marr Chase usually produces.
Projected is Ja'Marr Chase's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 9 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 26.5 |
| Chase avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 43.5 | 1.0 | 14.8 | |
| Colts WR3 avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -1.5 | +5.5 | -1.0 | -6.9 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 56.2 | 1.3 | 23.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Chase averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ja'Marr ChaseMedium confidence · 18.9 proj ptsStart
Ja'Marr Chase usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ja'Marr Chase averages 14.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Colts have allowed 9.4 points to WR2s over 2 games (+14% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 18.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJa'Marr Chase vs the Colts
Prediction for Ja'Marr Chase
Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 18.9 points for Ja'Marr Chase if playing as a WR2. Ja'Marr Chase has averaged 14.8 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 9.4 to WR2s (+14% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ja'Marr Chase scored: Wk 1 3.2, Wk 2 26.5. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 17.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 9.4 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 17.9 x 1.06 = 18.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ja'Marr Chase is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.3 points, leaning on Ja'Marr Chase's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 49.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 7.9 PPR points to WR3s, +73% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.5 to 12.3 (median 7.9).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.