WRs vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Week 6 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Pat Bryant | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 2 |  IND | Josh Downs | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.5 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.5 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
| Low | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ladd McConkey should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ladd McConkey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ladd McConkey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ladd McConkey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ladd McConkey usually produces.
Projected is Ladd McConkey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 7 | 5 | 82 | 1 | 19.2 |
| 2 | LV | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 |
| McConkey avg | 5.0 | 4.0 | 58.5 | 0.5 | 12.8 | |
| Chiefs WR2 avg | 4.0 | 2.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -1.5 | -22.5 | -0.5 | -6.8 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 52.3 | 0.4 | 10.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McConkey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ladd McConkeyMedium confidence · 10.1 proj ptsFlex
- Ladd McConkey averages 12.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.1) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Chiefs have allowed 11.2 points to WR1s over 2 games (-34% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreLadd McConkey vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Ladd McConkey
Nobody knows which slot Ladd McConkey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 10.1 points for Ladd McConkey if playing as a WR1. Ladd McConkey has averaged 12.8 over 2 games, and the Chiefs have given up 11.2 to WR1s (-34% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ladd McConkey scored: Wk 1 19.2, Wk 2 6.5. Average 12.8; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Chiefs allowed 11.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.86 = 10.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ladd McConkey is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.1 points, leaning on Ladd McConkey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.5 receptions, 57.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 2 games.
- The Chiefs allow 11.2 PPR points to WR1s, -34% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 27 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.2 to 14.2 (median 11.2).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.