WRs vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Pat Bryant | WR1 | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
| Jaylen Waddle | WR3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | ||
| 2 |  IND | Josh Downs | WR1 | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Laquon Treadwell | WR2 | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 | ||
| Alec Pierce | WR3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 | ||
| Average | 4.5 | 3.0 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |||
| High | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Tre Tucker
Nobody knows which slot Tre Tucker will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 10.9 points for Tre Tucker if playing as a WR2. Tre Tucker has averaged 13.8 over 2 games, and the Chiefs have given up 6.1 to WR2s (-26% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tre Tucker scored: Wk 1 4.7, Wk 2 22.9. Average 13.8; weighted toward recent games it is 12.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Chiefs allowed 6.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 12.2 x 0.89 = 10.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tre Tucker is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Tre Tucker's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 33.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Chiefs across 2 games.
- The Chiefs allow 18.9 PPR points to the position per game, -36% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Josh Downs (14.2 pts, 7 rec, 72 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.3 vs 4.7; rec 3.0 vs 2.2; yds 33.2 vs 25.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jaylen Waddle (1.2 pts, 2 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.3 vs 7.3; yds 33.2 vs 39.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.2 to 14.2 (median 5.6).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Tre Tucker usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Tre Tucker averages 13.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 14.8) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Chiefs have allowed 6.1 points to WR2s over 2 games (-26% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Tre Tucker's stats vs the Chiefs
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tre Tucker has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tre Tucker will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tre Tucker's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tre Tucker usually produces.
Projected is Tre Tucker's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 4 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 7 | 5 | 119 | 1 | 22.9 |
| Tucker avg | 5.5 | 3.5 | 73.0 | 0.5 | 13.8 | |
| Chiefs Top 3 avg | 4.5 | 3.0 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -0.5 | -39.8 | -0.5 | -7.5 | |
| Projected | 4.9 | 3.1 | 65.3 | 0.4 | 10.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Tucker averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.