WRs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 3 · through 1 game · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 |
| Average | 7.0 | 6.0 | 48.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 48.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Courtland Sutton should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Courtland Sutton has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Courtland Sutton's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Courtland Sutton usually produces.
Projected is Courtland Sutton's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 | JAX | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Sutton avg | 4.5 | 2.5 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
| Rams Top 3 avg | 5.7 | 4.7 | 49.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | |
| Difference | +1.2 | +2.2 | +31.0 | +1.0 | +11.7 | |
| Projected | 5.7 | 3.1 | 22.7 | 0.0 | 10.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sutton averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Courtland SuttonLow confidence · 10.7 proj ptsFlex
Courtland Sutton usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Courtland Sutton averages 4.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 4.4) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Rams have allowed 16.9 points to WR2s over 1 game (+104% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 45.5, implied 22.0 points for DEN (league avg 22.5); Wind about 13 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Kamren Kinchens (S) is out, which helps the passing game.
- Flag: 2 offensive linemen are out (Gargiulo, Crum). Protection and run blocking may suffer.
- Projection: 10.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCourtland Sutton vs the Rams
Prediction for Courtland Sutton
Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 10.9 points for Courtland Sutton if playing as a WR2. Courtland Sutton has averaged 4.3 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 16.9 to WR2s (+104% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Courtland Sutton scored: Wk 1 3.1, Wk 2 5.5. Average 4.3; weighted toward recent games it is 8.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 16.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is +104%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 8.7 x 1.26 = 10.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Courtland Sutton is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.6 points, leaning on Courtland Sutton's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.0 receptions, 48.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 18.0 PPR points to WR1s, +6% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.