WRs vs Las Vegas Raiders
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Raiders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Chris Bell | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 3 |  NO | Bryce Lance | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  KC | Jalen Royals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 |  NE | Efton Chism III | 6 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 6 |  BUF | Josh Palmer | 2 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 8 |  NYJ | Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 8.8 |
| Average | 3.0 | 1.3 | 20.6 | 0.1 | 4.3 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | ||
| High | 6 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 10.9 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mike Evans should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mike Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mike Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mike Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mike Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 | ARI | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 12.4 |
| 4 | DEN | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SEA | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 26.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 5 | 3 | 94 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Evans avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 0.5 | 14.8 | |
| Raiders WR3 avg | 3.0 | 1.3 | 20.6 | 0.1 | 4.3 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -3.2 | -49.4 | -0.4 | -10.5 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 69.5 | 0.5 | 14.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mike EvansGood confidence · 18.1 proj pts7/10 start
Mike Evans usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Mike Evans averages 14.8 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 15.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Raiders have allowed 19.5 points to WR1s over 8 games (+14% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.6) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +14%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 30.8 points for SF (league avg 22.6); Favored by 10: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (71F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Teammate injuries (+2%): Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Evans.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 18.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMike Evans vs the Raiders
Prediction for Mike Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 15.6 points for Mike Evans if playing as a WR1. Mike Evans has averaged 14.8 over 6 games, and the Raiders have given up 19.5 to WR1s (+14% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mike Evans scored: Wk 1 16.9, Wk 2 8.4, Wk 3 12.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 26.3, Wk 6 12.4. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.2.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Raiders allowed 19.5 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 14.2 x 1.10 = 15.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mike Evans is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.3 points, leaning on Mike Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.3 receptions, 20.6 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Raiders across 8 games.
- The Raiders allow 4.3 PPR points to WR3s, -1% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Efton Chism III (10.9 pts, 5 rec, 57 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.3 vs 3.2; rec 1.3 vs 0.7; yds 20.6 vs 14.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.9 (median 3.5).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.