WRs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jack Bech | 4 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 11.3 |
| 2 |  SF | Mike Evans | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| Average | 3.5 | 3.0 | 38.5 | 0.5 | 9.9 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.0 | 38.5 | 0.5 | 9.9 | ||
| High | 4 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 11.3 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 21.4 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR1. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 32.0 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 9.9 to WR1s (-42% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2. Average 32.0; weighted toward recent games it is 25.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 9.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 25.7 x 0.83 = 21.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.8 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 38.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 9.9 PPR points to WR1s, -42% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.4 to 11.3 (median 9.9).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownMedium confidence · 21.4 proj ptsMust Start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 32.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 32.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 9.9 points to WR1s over 2 games (-42% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 21.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's stats vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Brown avg | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.5 | 2.0 | 32.0 | |
| Dolphins WR3 avg | 3.5 | 2.5 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | -10.0 | -7.0 | -74.0 | -2.0 | -26.4 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 14.7 | 10.3 | 113.5 | 2.2 | 27.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.