WRs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jalen Nailor | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Average | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Brown avg | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.5 | 2.0 | 32.0 | |
| Dolphins WR2 avg | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Difference | -9.0 | -6.5 | -75.5 | -2.0 | -25.9 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 93.5 | 1.8 | 23.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownMedium confidence · 21.4 proj ptsMust Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 32.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 32.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 9.9 points to WR1s over 2 games (-42% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 21.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 21.4 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR1. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 32.0 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 9.9 to WR1s (-42% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2. Average 32.0; weighted toward recent games it is 25.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 9.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 25.7 x 0.83 = 21.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.8 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 29.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 6.1 PPR points to WR2s, -26% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.7 to 6.5 (median 6.1).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.