WRs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jack Bech | WR1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 11.3 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR2 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
| Tre Tucker | WR3 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 | ||
| 2 |  SF | Mike Evans | WR1 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
| Demarcus Robinson | WR3 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 6.4 | ||
| Average | 3.8 | 2.8 | 32.7 | 0.2 | 7.2 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |||
| High | 5 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 11.3 | |||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 4.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Rashee Rice should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Rashee Rice has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Rashee Rice will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Rashee Rice's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Rashee Rice usually produces.
Projected is Rashee Rice's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9.9 |
| 2 | IND | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Rice avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 51.0 | 0.5 | 11.1 | |
| Dolphins Top 3 avg | 3.8 | 2.8 | 32.7 | 0.2 | 7.2 | |
| Difference | -0.2 | -0.2 | -18.3 | -0.3 | -3.9 | |
| Projected | 3.6 | 2.7 | 45.6 | 0.4 | 14.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Rice averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Rashee RiceMedium confidence · 14.4 proj ptsStart
Rashee Rice usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Rashee Rice averages 11.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Dolphins have allowed 6.1 points to WR2s over 2 games (-26% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (18.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 46% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
- Projection: 14.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreRashee Rice vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Rashee Rice
Nobody knows which slot Rashee Rice will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 13.4 points for Rashee Rice if playing as a WR2. Rashee Rice has averaged 11.1 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 6.1 to WR2s (-26% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Rashee Rice scored: Wk 1 9.9, Wk 2 12.3. Average 11.1; weighted toward recent games it is 15.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 6.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 15.0 x 0.89 = 13.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Rashee Rice is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Rashee Rice's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 2.8 receptions, 32.7 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 21.5 PPR points to the position per game, -28% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 27 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.7 to 11.3 (median 6.5).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.