WRs vs Minnesota Vikings
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Christian Watson | WR1 | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 32.7 |
| Matthew Golden | WR2 | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.5 | ||
| Jayden Reed | WR3 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
| 2 |  CHI | Kalif Raymond | WR1 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Rome Odunze | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Luther Burden III | WR3 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 | ||
| Average | 7.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 0.3 | 12.6 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 0.0 | 8.2 | |||
| High | 12 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 32.7 | |||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jameson Williams should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jameson Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jameson Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jameson Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jameson Williams usually produces.
Projected is Jameson Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2 | BUF | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Williams avg | 6.5 | 3.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | |
| Vikings Top 3 avg | 7.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 0.3 | 12.6 | |
| Difference | +0.7 | +1.3 | +23.8 | +0.3 | +5.7 | |
| Projected | 7.5 | 3.5 | 44.9 | 0.0 | 11.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jameson WilliamsMedium confidence · 11.3 proj ptsFlex
Jameson Williams usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jameson Williams averages 6.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 6.7) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Vikings have allowed 11.4 points to WR2s over 2 games (+38% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJameson Williams vs the Vikings
Prediction for Jameson Williams
Nobody knows which slot Jameson Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 11.3 points for Jameson Williams if playing as a WR2. Jameson Williams has averaged 6.9 over 2 games, and the Vikings have given up 11.4 to WR2s (+38% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jameson Williams scored: Wk 1 8.5, Wk 2 5.3. Average 6.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Vikings allowed 11.4 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is +38%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 9.8 x 1.15 = 11.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jameson Williams is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.8 points, leaning on Jameson Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.3 receptions, 62.8 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Vikings across 2 games.
- The Vikings allow 37.9 PPR points to the position per game, +27% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Christian Watson (32.7 pts, 147 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 8.6; yds 62.8 vs 46.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jayden Reed (5.0 pts, 20 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 14.1; yds 62.8 vs 71.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 32.7 (median 8.2).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.