WRs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylen Waddle should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Waddle has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Waddle will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Waddle's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Waddle usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Waddle's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 21.8 |
| Waddle avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |
| Patriots WR1 avg | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +2.0 | +5.0 | +0.5 | +5.5 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Waddle averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaylen WaddleMedium confidence · 11.3 proj ptsFlex
Jaylen Waddle usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jaylen Waddle averages 11.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.6) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Patriots have allowed 6.5 points to WR2s over 2 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Waddle vs the Patriots
Prediction for Jaylen Waddle
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Waddle will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 11.3 points for Jaylen Waddle if playing as a WR2. Jaylen Waddle has averaged 11.5 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 6.5 to WR2s (-22% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Waddle scored: Wk 1 1.2, Wk 2 21.8. Average 11.5; weighted toward recent games it is 12.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 6.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -9% adjustment (x0.91).
4. Result. 12.4 x 0.91 = 11.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Waddle is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.8 points, leaning on Jaylen Waddle's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.5 receptions, 75.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 17.0 PPR points to WR1s, +0% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 26.2 (median 17.0).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.