WRs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 |  BAL | Rashod Bateman | 9 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 21.8 |
| Average | 11.5 | 8.5 | 77.5 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| Median | 11.5 | 8.5 | 77.5 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| High | 14 | 10 | 88 | 2 | 28.7 | ||
| Low | 9 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 21.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction & chance to scoreTre Tucker vs the Saints
Prediction for Tre Tucker
Nobody knows which slot Tre Tucker will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 11.5 points for Tre Tucker if playing as a WR2. Tre Tucker has averaged 13.8 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 7.1 to WR2s (-14% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tre Tucker scored: Wk 1 4.7, Wk 2 22.9. Average 13.8; weighted toward recent games it is 12.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 7.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 12.2 x 0.94 = 11.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tre Tucker is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.9 points, leaning on Tre Tucker's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 8.5 receptions, 77.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 25.3 PPR points to WR1s, +49% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 21.8 to 28.7 (median 25.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 60 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Tre TuckerMedium confidence · 11.6 proj ptsFlex
Tre Tucker usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Tre Tucker averages 13.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 14.8) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Saints have allowed 7.1 points to WR2s over 2 games (-14% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -1%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.3 points for LV (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 11.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Tre Tucker's stats vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tre Tucker has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tre Tucker will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tre Tucker's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tre Tucker usually produces.
Projected is Tre Tucker's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 4 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 7 | 5 | 119 | 1 | 22.9 |
| Tucker avg | 5.5 | 3.5 | 73.0 | 0.5 | 13.8 | |
| Saints WR1 avg | 11.5 | 8.5 | 77.5 | 1.5 | 25.3 | |
| Difference | +6.0 | +5.0 | +4.5 | +1.0 | +11.5 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 87.3 | 0.6 | 14.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Tucker averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.