WRs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 7 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR1 | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| Jameson Williams | WR2 | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 | ||
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 2 |  BAL | Rashod Bateman | WR1 | 9 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 21.8 |
| Devontez Walker | WR2 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
| LaJohntay Wester | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
| Average | 6.2 | 3.8 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 11.2 | |||
| Median | 5.5 | 2.5 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | |||
| High | 14 | 10 | 88 | 2 | 28.7 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Pittman should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Pittman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Pittman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Pittman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Pittman usually produces.
Projected is Michael Pittman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 8.8 |
| Pittman avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | |
| Saints Top 3 avg | 6.2 | 3.8 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 11.2 | |
| Difference | +3.2 | +0.8 | -14.5 | +0.5 | +2.4 | |
| Projected | 3.6 | 3.6 | 69.4 | 0.0 | 13.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Pittman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Michael PittmanMedium confidence · 13.0 proj ptsOut
Michael Pittman usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Michael Pittman averages 8.8 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 8.8) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Saints have allowed 25.3 points to WR1s over 2 games (+49% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.9) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 13.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Pittman vs the Saints
Prediction for Michael Pittman
Nobody knows which slot Michael Pittman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 13.0 points for Michael Pittman if playing as a WR1. Michael Pittman has averaged 8.8 over 1 game, and the Saints have given up 25.3 to WR1s (+49% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Pittman scored: Wk 1 8.8. Average 8.8; weighted toward recent games it is 10.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 25.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 10.9 x 1.20 = 13.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Pittman is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.8 points, leaning on Michael Pittman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.8 receptions, 43.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 33.5 PPR points to the position per game, +13% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Rashod Bateman (21.8 pts, 7 rec, 88 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 9.1; rec 3.8 vs 3.2; yds 43.5 vs 34.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, LaJohntay Wester (2.4 pts, 1 rec, 14 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 12.9; rec 3.8 vs 4.4; yds 43.5 vs 49.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 28.7 (median 7.1).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.