WRs vs New York Giants
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Giants in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 15.4 |
| Average | 8.0 | 5.0 | 44.0 | 1.0 | 15.4 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 5.0 | 44.0 | 1.0 | 15.4 | ||
| High | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 15.4 | ||
| Low | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 15.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Puka Nacua
Nobody knows which slot Puka Nacua will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 19.3 points for Puka Nacua if playing as a WR1. Puka Nacua has averaged 12.4 over 1 game, and the Giants have given up 15.4 to WR1s (-9% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Puka Nacua scored: Wk 1 12.4. Average 12.4; weighted toward recent games it is 19.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Giants allowed 15.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 19.8 x 0.98 = 19.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Puka Nacua is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.6 points, leaning on Puka Nacua's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 44.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Giants across 1 game.
- The Giants allow 15.4 PPR points to WR1s, -9% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Puka Nacua averages 12.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 12.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Giants have allowed 15.4 points to WR1s over 1 game (-9% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (23.4) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +10%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 27.0 points for LA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+5%): Opposing starter Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Paulson Adebo (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 22.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Puka Nacua's stats vs the Giants
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Puka Nacua has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Puka Nacua will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Puka Nacua's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Puka Nacua usually produces.
Projected is Puka Nacua's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Nacua avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |
| Giants WR2 avg | 6.0 | 3.0 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | |
| Difference | -3.0 | -2.0 | -46.0 | +0.0 | -6.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 68.6 | 0.0 | 18.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Nacua averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.